Tullow Oil: shares spring to life
It's been a real rollercoaster for Tullow shareholders, but the stock just enjoyed a bounce. Independent analyst Alistair Strang looks at what might happen next.
27th March 2025 07:30
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
We reviewed Tullow Oil (LSE:TLW) just a few weeks ago on 29 January, giving an argument for our speculation that the share could bottom at 13p. On 11 March, the share price closed the session at 13.03p, hopefully close enough to our target to justify an “attaboy” award.
Of course, such a thing only becomes of special interest if a share price experiences a solid bounce, otherwise it risks remaining as an anomaly. Thankfully, there appears a reasonable chance Tullow is exhibiting the other half of our deal with the gods of statistical mathematics!
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When we previously did our magic on Tullow, we didn’t bother giving rebound figures from our 13p bottom, essentially because we didn’t expect it to make an appearance. However, we cannot ignore the 13.5% rise experienced on 26 March, the share price roaming into uncharted territory above the immediate downtrend.
One curious detail we don’t understand is that the immediate downtrend since December last year rather exactly parallels the 10-year downtrend since 2015, a truly odd coincidence which we shall doubtless waste a few days trying to comprehend.
At first glance, it was easy to assume the share price had been allocated a “rate of decline”, and now we can hope this state of affairs shall be corrected. While conceding our interest in numbers can lead us down countless routes to dead ends, it will certainly be interesting trying to figure out if Tullow Oil experiences a “rate of gain” in the weeks ahead!
From a near-term perspective, above 17.6p should allegedly trigger price recovery to an initial 19.3p with our secondary, if bettered, a longer-term 22.8p. Closure above this secondary target should become useful from a Big Picture perspective, triggering a recovery cycle to an eventual 40p which makes a lot of visual sense.
Hopefully it is the case where Tullow shall finally become useful again.
Oh, below 13p now gives a ridiculous “final” target of just above 4p.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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