New poll: here’s where you think the FTSE 100 will end 2022

Find out what fellow investors think will happen to stocks in 2022, which region they think will do best and the biggest threat to stock markets next year.

With Omicron spooking markets, research over the weekend by interactive investor amongst 1,900 website visitors suggests that the prospect of new coronavirus variants that evade vaccines has investors most worried for next year.

This is the biggest threat to stock markets next year for 42% of investors, with more lockdowns next on the worry list for 19% of respondents. Geopolitical tensions came in third place, at 15%.

Not surprisingly, then, over two-thirds think that by this time next year, the FTSE 100 will be stalling, and still not have exceeded 7,500. Some 18% think markets will languish between 6,500-7,000.

But it isn’t all doom and gloom. A fifth (21%) more optimistically expect the UK’s premier index to close next year around 7,500-8,000, with a bullish 10% expecting the market to exceed 8,000.

Meanwhile, the UK is still the second most favoured region expected to perform best next year amongst 28% of respondents, second only to the US, which was favoured by 32% of respondents.

Lee Wild, Head of Equity Strategy, interactive investor, says: “Investors have pretty low expectations for the next 12 months. As the UK introduces a new set of Covid measures and the pandemic shows few signs of being defeated, it’s no surprise that confidence has been sapped.

“Over two-thirds think that by this time next year, the FTSE 100 will still not have exceeded 7,500, roughly where the index was just before the Covid crash of 2020. The UK economy remains very much in recovery mode, and the government has only just begun repaying the vast fortune it spent keeping the country afloat during lockdowns. Damage done to stocks by new variants like Omicron demonstrates just how vulnerable financial markets remain. Events like this also give investors a good excuse to take money off the table while asset prices remain at elevated levels.

“But it’s not all doom and gloom; almost one-third of investors think the FTSE 100 could be trading either close to or at a record high in 12 months’ time. A ‘glass half full’ approach to investing in 2022 requires some big assumptions though, among them that inflation is transitory and will not trigger a more rapid rate tightening cycle. The resilience of consumers will also be tested as chancellor Rishi Sunak’s tax grab begins to bite.”

What do you think will be the closing value of the FTSE 100 at the end of 2022?

Above 8,000     9.8%
7,500-8,000     21.3%
7,000-7,500     44.7%
6,500-7,000     17.9%
6,000-6,500     3.5%
Below 6,000    2.8%

Which region do you think will do best in 2022?

What is the biggest threat for stock markets next year?