Insider: a FTSE 100 stock backed to rebound after sell-off

Informa (LSE:INF) shares have received £75,000 of boardroom support after “outstanding” results from the trade shows-to-academic publisher were followed by a slide in valuation from record levels.

Non-executive director Louise Smalley made the most recent purchase on Wednesday after she spent £40,000, increasing her stake in the FTSE 100 company at a price of 778.8p.

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Chair John Rishton picked up stock worth £20,000 the day after the results on 6 March, followed by new board member Catherine Levene’s investment of just over £15,000.

Informa shares touched 900p for the first time in mid-February before retreating as far as 742p, even though chief executive Stephen Carter hailed strong momentum heading into 2025.

He said: “On every measure, the Informa Group delivered an outstanding result in 2024, from revenue growth to higher dividend returns, alongside further international and portfolio expansion. This is a performance we aim to repeat in 2025.”

The group, whose operations span live business-to-business events, digital services and academic journals through Taylor & Francis, expects underlying revenues growth of more than 5% this year as it continues to target faster growing markets and geographies.

Informa will have the first full year benefit of events-led FTSE 250 acquisition Ascential, which is the home of the Cannes Lions and Money20/20, and majority ownership of Nasdaq-listed business growth accelerator Informa TechTarget.

The company’s strong record of expansion in the Middle East is also set to continue after Informa recently unveiled a strategic partnership with Dubai World Trade Centre.

Despite the positive 2025 outlook, the lack of an upgrade to earnings guidance and increased caution over the global economic outlook have weighed on the shares.

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Deutsche Bank, which has a price target of 1,041p, said: “The positive messaging at the full-year results looks at odds with the share price reaction.

“We see good like-for-like revenues growth, strong cash flow and double-digit earnings per share [EPS] growth on a low rating versus business-to-business peers.”

UBS pointed out that consensus expectations for 2025 earnings have remained at 56p a share since the beginning of 2024, and are unlikely to change after the 2024 results showed an increase of 10.6% to 50.1p.

If the pattern were to repeat and the City consensus stayed at 63p for 2026, UBS said the shares would be trading on a multiple of just 12 times forward earnings. That’s despite the company delivering a fourth straight year of double-digit EPS growth.

The bank said: “We therefore think it is unlikely that Informa shares will not make progress in the next 12 months in that scenario. Further, we think there are many reasons we could see upgrades to consensus.”

These include the potential upside of share buybacks, a re-acceleration in China, a successful launch of Informa’s new Dubai events joint venture later this year and the impact of a better-than-expected performance at digital services venture TechTarget.

UBS has retained a Buy recommendation but last week cut its price target to 930p from 1,027p. That’s in line with Barclays, which went to 930p from 1,000p but retained an Overweight stance.

Having resumed dividends in 2022, Informa increased the total for 2024 by 11.1% to 20p a share. This includes plans for the payment of 13.6p a share on 11 July, which will mean Informa has returned more than £675 million in relation to 2024.

These shares have never been cheaper

An Essentra (LSE:ESNT) stake worth £38,000 has been bought by the FTSE 250 company’s chair after robust annual results failed to lift the components maker’s valuation from a 15-year low.

Steve Good’s share dealings took place on Thursday at 109p, the day after the board unveiled a 16% drop in adjusted profit to £31.2 million on revenues unchanged at £302.4 million.

Despite volume reductions, each of the company’s regions reported improved gross margin performances amid a focus on operational efficiencies.

The new year has started in line with forecasts, with the group taking a cautious view on the timing of any material improvement in end-market conditions.

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Essentra employs 3,000 people at 14 manufacturing facilities, producing 60 million parts a week for customers in sectors including automotive, electronics and renewable energy. These are small but critical components that go into other items.

It was known as Filtrona until 2013, having demerged from FTSE 100-listed Bunzl in 2005. Essentra is now a pure play components business after selling its filters division in 2022.

Having fallen from 190p in May to a record low of 104p, the shares retain strong support in the City.

Panmure Liberum, which left its earnings estimates unchanged following the results, has a price target of 315p. Jefferies called the company an early-cycle play on EU and US industrial production recovery, with the additional benefit of a healthy M&A pipeline.

Its price target of 177p compares with Peel Hunt’s 230p. The broker said last week: “Management is navigating choppy waters well, improving the gross margin.

“Our focus remains on the potential for accelerated returns as volumes recover. Service levels remain high, supporting price discipline and commercial pipelines."