eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 24 March 2025

Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ

• Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 23 March 2025.

InterContinental Hotels

Having spent recent months being driven by company news, the InterContinental Hotels Group (LSE:IHG) share price is back in a macro regime. Macro relevance is 68%, so what’s the big picture?

Macro conditions have fallen hard in March - eyeQ model value has fallen around 12%. The only consolation is the stock price has sold off even more and now sits 12.4% cheap to model.

That’s not quite enough to trigger a bullish signal but we’re close. Ideally, we’d see model value stabilise too - then we might have an opportunity of note.

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 23 March 2025.

Anheuser-Busch 

The brewer announced strong earnings last month and the stock price jumped higher.

Macro conditions have also been improving but this rally has moved further and faster than eyeQ  model value. The result is Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV ADR (NYSE:BUD) screens as 8.28% rich.

That’s not quite a big enough gap to trigger a bearish signal but, again, we’re close. The risk-reward doesn’t look great here and we’d been on watch for an opportunity to lighten up.