eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 17 February 2025

"Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ

• Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 16 February 2025.

Berkeley Group

The macro environment for homebuilder Berkeley Group Holdings (The) (LSE:BKG) is improving. eyeQ model value has risen 14% so far in February. 

But the stock continues to languish near recent lows. That leaves it 18.29% cheap to overall macro conditions and that's triggered a bullish signal.

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 16 February 2025.

Occidental Petroleum Corp

2024 wasn’t a good year for Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY); the stock price fell17.3% as oil prices weakened. But last week there was some good news - it emerged that Warren Buffett has purchased more shares bringing Berkshire Hathaway’s holding to 28.2%.

On eyeQ, OXY model value fell throughout most of last year but is now showing tentative signs of trying to form a base. The stock sits 8.33% below aggregate macro conditions. That fair value gap isn’t large enough to trigger an official signal, but we are close.