eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 14 April 2025
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to generate actionable trading signals. Here, they highlight 10 UK shares and 10 overseas stocks either cheap or expensive given current macro conditions.
14th April 2025 09:27
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).
A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.
All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.
Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
UK Top 10
| Company | Macro Relevance | Model Value | Fair Value Gap |
| Hunting (LSE:HTG) | 65% | 270.37p | -9.68% |
| Bridgepoint Group (LSE:BPT) | 66% | 267.60p | -9.05% |
| Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) | 74% | 1570.08p | -6.77% |
| Hiscox Ltd (LSE:HSX) | 75% | 1156.31p | -4.83% |
| Barclays (LSE:BARC) | 75% | 266.84p | -3.45% |
| Wetherspoon (J D) (LSE:JDW) | 72% | 559.96p | 3.79% |
| Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.) | 68% | 98.98p | 4.92% |
| Diploma (LSE:DPLM) | 72% | 3560.00p | 6.02% |
| Playtech (LSE:PTEC) | 68% | 670.38p | 6.89% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group (LSE:IHG) | 71% | 7110.25p | 7.78% |
Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 13 April.
Antofagasta
Shares of the metal titan have plummeted in the past four weeks. Global trade wars and recession fears have hurt the share price.
eyeQ has a 74% score on macro relevance, which means factors such as risk appetite and commodity prices play a strong explanatory power in the model. The stock currently sits 6.77% cheap to overall macro conditions but that fair value gap isn’t quite large enough to trigger a bullish signal.
It is interesting to note that model value has stopped falling and may be trying to form a base. Rising eyeQ model value would suggest macro conditions are improving. That, plus a cheap valuation, would be an interesting combination.
International Top 10
| Company | Macro Relevance | Model Value | Fair Value Gap |
| Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY) | 67% | $42.73 | -13.43% |
| Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) | 67% | $24.09 | -9.95% |
| Lazard Inc (NYSE:LAZ) | 73% | $37.85 | -9.18% |
| Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) | 77% | $35.94 | -8.42% |
| Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) | 72% | $36.52 | -1.58% |
| Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) | 81% | $59.74 | 3.08% |
| Marriott International Inc Class A (NASDAQ:MAR) | 68% | $210.54 | 6.52% |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) | 67% | $220.32 | 6.72% |
| Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) | 69% | $169.25 | 8.45% |
| EQT Corp (NYSE:EQT) | 79% | $43.81 | 11.76% |
Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 13 April.
Pfizer
The pharma giant’s stock price reached a 52-week low this month. Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) shares have had a rough start to 2025 courtesy of President Trump’s trade war.
eyeQ model value took a beating last month, registering a 10.18% decline over March. It has enjoyed a mini-bounce more recently though.
The stock currently sits 9.95% under eyeQ model value suggesting a fair degree of bad news is priced in. Indeed, that valuation gap is towards the cheap end of fair value gap ranges and is wide enough to fire a bullish signal.
Markets remain incredibly volatile, but for anyone adopting a long-term approach and maybe using a dollar cost averaging strategy, Pfizer looks to have potential.
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Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
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