Can Serco shares bounce back from Aussie loss?
Losing a contract to run onshore immigration detention facilities for the Australian government didn't go down well with investors. Independent analyst Alistair Strang consults his charts for signs it can recover.
12th November 2024 07:35
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Visually, the Serco Group (LSE:SRP) share price isn’t in a happy place. It was massively gapped down on 8 November with news they’d lost a contract in Australia.
We read a few articles questioning why folk at board level in Serco have been selling their shares. According to the numbers, board members ditched nearly 1/2 million shares in the last year, while just over 19,000 shares were bought by folk within the company who must notify of their action. It’s one of these ‘make of it what you will’ statistics. Collectively, only around 0.2% of Serco shares are owned by folk at board level or below, again one of the “make of it what you will” numbers.
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Currently trading around 159p, the share price looks like it faces a trigger level for trouble at 153p. Movement below such a point risks triggering reversals to an initial 137p with our secondary, if broken, at a possible bouncy bottom of 114p. When we view closing share price levels, things certainly don’t look great as shown in the closing price insert.
If things intend to turn happy for Serco, their share price needs to exceed 185p to give the first sign of hope, allowing for recovery to an initial 203p with secondary if bettered, at a longer term 214p.
For now, we’re not sure but will not be surprised if the 137p level is used to provoke a share price rebound.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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