Is a Brent crude price crash coming?
1st September 2022 07:38
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
Now trading below $100 a barrel again, independent analyst Alistair Strang studies the charts for clues as to oil's future price direction.
When we previously reviewed Brent Crude back in June, we suggested a break below $101 would potentially provide the first trigger level capable of producing some reversals. Yes, it did and no, it didn’t. The price of the product fell below $101, slumped to $91 in the period since, and has spent the last few months essentially messing around.
We’d already expressed frustration at the seemingly lost nature of Brent's movements, rising and falling in a fashion more in tune with the tide rather than any effective basis in reality.
There are now signs that things have the potential of further change. Weakness below just $93 now calculates as capable of triggering further reversals to an initial $87 with secondary, if broken, down at $77.
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We shall certainly be curious should $77 ever make an appearance as this encompasses quite a surprise potential.
As the visuals on the chart below highlight, hitting the $77 level would reverse the price of Brent below the level of the Big Picture trend break in January this year. From our perspective, dipping below this $81 level is quite important as it calls into question the integrity and strength of the upward surge which has proven so painful for 2022.
There are few signals more worrying than when a price breaks from a Big Picture trend, then after some time in the sun, the price opts to dodge below its prior trend. To be honest, it’s a seriously bad signal and often the harbinger of some tough times ahead.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
For now, the concern is the immediate proximity of the price of Brent to our $93 trigger level (actually $93.24 at time of writing), as the market is already making shuffling dance steps which indicate a break is imminent.
Then again, all this fragile market place needs is a suggestion something more is happening in Ukraine or Russia and, once again, the price risks being thrown up in the air.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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