Barclays shares hit 9-year high after bumper Q3

Barclays (LSE:BARC) is a multi-headed beast, and these numbers underline once more the strength of its diversified model.

At a group level, pre-tax profit for the third quarter of £2.2 billion was 18% higher than the corresponding period and ahead of the £1.97 billion which had been expected, bringing the number to £6.4 billion in the year to date.

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Feeding into the number was a third-quarter contribution of £6.5 billion in income, a 5% increase and again ahead of estimates, bringing the cumulative figure to £19.8 billion. The performance has resulted in Barclays upping its guidance slightly for the full year, with a revised Net Interest Income (NII) figure of over £11 billion including an upgrade to the contribution of Barclays UK from £6.3 billion to £6.5 billion,

The reasons for the optimism are driven mainly by the contribution from the group’s three largest units. The Investment Bank, which is for the most part a US division, accounts for 46% of group revenues, Barclays UK 29% and the Barclays US Consumer Bank 12%.

The recent strength of sterling against the US dollar is unusual in that the group is reporting a currency headwind as opposed to the usual tailwind it announces. However, this is something of a double-edged sword in that this sterling strength negatively impacted revenue and profits, while having a positive effect on impairment charges and total operating expenses, especially Stateside.

As had been hoped, the recent strength of the banks’ reporting season in the US has indeed read across to Barclays’ US Investment Bank, where higher overall income rose by 6% to £2.85 billion, largely driven by an improvement in deal making and fee income generally, and with an increase of 13% within the banking operation, where banking fees and underwriting income rose by 30%. The unit remains core to the group’s overall strategy as would be expected by its significance to group revenues.

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Barclays UK saw income increase by 4%, helped along by income from the so-called structural hedge, which lessens the group’s susceptibility to changes in interest rates. This was partly offset by mortgage margin pressure and adverse deposit dynamics as customers sought higher rates elsewhere, although both of these appear to be both improving and stabilising to hopefully establish a more positive direction of travel.

At the US Consumer Bank, income dropped by 2%, largely due to the currency headwind of the sterling/US dollar relationship, although there was an increase in credit card balances. However, this increase continues to come with something of a caveat, since the rise in effectively unsecured lending inevitably led to a small but containable increase in credit defaults, of which the bank is acutely aware.

The bank has therefore taken the decision to increase the overall level of its impairment charge, lifting the group total to £1.27 billion for the year to date. This includes a charge of £372 million in the latest quarter, lower than the expected £452 million and the £433 million taken in the previous year. 

Barclays is also maintaining its stance on shareholder returns, with the previously announced £750 million buyback on track and a dividend where the current yield of 3.4% is somewhat average. Even so, between this year and 2026, Barclays is maintaining its ambitious target of £10 billion of returns, which are increasingly likely to be skewed towards buybacks rather than a progressive dividend policy. 

This is also being enabled by some of the key metrics which have soared above expectations. The Return on Tangible Equity for the latest quarter came in at 12.3%, significantly higher than the expected (and target) level of 10%, leaving the full-year level eminently achievable.

At the same time, a robust capital cushion or CET1 ratio of 13.8%, but the direction of the cost/income ratio is particularly impressive. Cost savings of £300 million in the latest quarter bring the cumulative figure to £700 million and the £1 billion full-year aim firmly into view, such that the current cost/income ratio of 61% is running below the 63% target.

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In terms of corporate activity, the group is still in the process of repositioning its portfolio. The Italian mortgage book was sold at a loss of some £220 million, and the German consumer finance business for a loss of £20 million. Meanwhile, the acquisition of Tesco Bank is expected to complete in November, adding a further string to Barclays’ UK income bow, while also giving a day one pre-tax profit tailwind of £300 million and an income gain of £500 million.

Overall, these numbers are positive on any number of fronts, and the warm share price reaction to the update is well-won given the high expectations which the bank was up against going into the results.

Indeed, the gain in opening exchanges adds to a share price which has risen by 65% over the last year, as compared to a rise of 11.8% for the wider FTSE100, and by 24% in the last six months alone. There is little to suggest that the market consensus of the shares as a buy will be troubled as a result, with prospects continuing to outweigh the positive rerating which the stock has seen of late.