At what price will NatWest shares bounce?
With a big chunk of the high street bank's 2025 gains wiped out by Trump's tariff policy, independent analyst Alistair Strang reveals what his charts say happens next.
7th April 2025 07:44
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
When we reviewed NatWest Group (LSE:NWG) shares three weeks ago, we warned of the dangers of a dip below 428p as it risked making our silly GaGa scenario into reality. Unfortunately, this has proven to be the case, their share price hitting 403p which is sufficiently close to our 400p level to be deemed a success.
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Our next target, should 400p be pierced (as it almost certainly will be) remains at 368p and the very strong potential of some sort of bounce. Our secondary in this instance is at 363p, essentially the same price level and effectively doubling the bounce potentials.
The problem comes if the market decides Trump tariffs are as bad as Covid-19, arithmetically giving it permission to eventually target a bottom around 262p for NatWest. Currently, absolutely nothing is giving such a signal but it’d be remiss of us not to mention it.
So far, with the market games of clutching pearls, things are not as bad as headline writers would have folk believe, NatWest not even closing below the uptrend since the start of 2024. Unfortunately, we do suspect this will end in tears, and that a visit to the 368p level is on the cards. Only if below 363p will we justify rushing out to buy a pair of running shoes.
Only if above 440p shall we take any rise seriously as movement to an initial 455p is expected with secondary, if bettered, at 501p. To be blunt, this is not a scenario we expect.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
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