Wild’s Winter Portfolios 2024: a first month to forget

A year ago, I was talking about “one of the best starts ever” for Wild’s Winter Portfolios. This time it’s one of the worst.

American stock markets soared again in November, extending gains this year to 33% for the Nasdaq tech index and 27% for the broader S&P 500. The FTSE 350, which lacks the kind of growth companies driving stocks on Wall Street, is up 7%.

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While Brits continued to consider the consequences of the Budget, US investors reacted positively to the election of Donald Trump as president. They also had a quarter-point interest rate cut to celebrate.

Wild’s Consistent Winter Portfolio, made up of the five FTSE 350 companies that have risen the most winters – between 1 November and 30 April – over the past decade, lost 4.4% in November. It had been up as much as 3.4% earlier in the month following Trump’s victory.

We relax the entry criteria slightly for Wild’s Aggressive Winter Portfolio, giving up some consistency in return for potentially bigger profits - all constituents are up at least 80% of winters over the past decade. After a quick 2% gain early in the month, the portfolio ended November down 2.5%. The FTSE 350 benchmark index rose 2.1%.

Yes, it’s not a great start, but these are data-driven portfolios based on 10-year performance between close of play 31 October and 30 April. And this is not the worst start to a winter for them. On five occasions in the past 10 years, one of them has started badly and ended the six months with big gains. The aggressive portfolio fell 4.4% in November 2018 and ended the winter up 27.7%. Don’t write them off yet.

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Historic Winter Portfolio Performance each November

Source: interactive investor using Morningstar data. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Wild’s Consistent Winter Portfolio 2024-25

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

There were just two risers in the consistent portfolio in November, and gains were paltry. Food packaging company Hilton Food Group (LSE:HFG) rose 0.7% as it continued to trade largely sideways, despite an encouraging third-quarter trading update early in the month. “The group's financial position remains strong, enabling the business to continue to invest in opportunities that align with our strategic priorities,” it said. Watch out for the next trading update on 9 January.

Precision instrumentation firm Spectris (LSE:SXS) issued a third-quarter update at the end of October, and it was not good. Markets might have stabilised, but it warned that the recovery anticipated at the time of its half-year results is taking longer to materialise. Boss Andrew Heath reduced his annual profit forecast, blaming softness in China which will now likely “continue into the early part of 2025”. A drop in share price before the winter portfolios started meant Spectris ended the month up 0.6%.

But the other three constituents did poorly. Electronic components company discoverIE Group (LSE:DSCV) ended the month down 6.2%. Shares had rallied through October and following the US election, but succumbed to selling through the second half of the month. There was good news in half-year results published at the beginning of December, sending shares to a four-month high. But more on that next time.

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Safestore Holdings Ordinary Shares (LSE:SAFE), a provider of self-storage, made a loss of 8%. Its share price peaked in September and has headed steadily lower since. Fourth-quarter results at the end of November did nothing to improve sentiment. Full-year earnings per share will be “broadly in line with consensus forecast” of 41.3p to 44.6p, while UK occupancy similar to last year reflects softer business customer demand.

I’ve saved the worst till last. And it’s probably one of the best companies. It was always going to be hard for Keller Group (LSE:KLR), which had already risen 150% in the year to October. And so it proved. The share price ended November 9% lower than at the start of the month.

The ground engineer has been one of 2024’s top FTSE 250 stocks, amid the strength of its North American exposure. In a trading update on 14 November, it revealed a record order book, and analysts at Peel Hunt raised their price target to 1,980p. Deepak Raj, divisional president, APAC, bought 10,000 shares straight after the release. However, other investors have been taking profits, which explains the recent slump. Annual results are due in March.

Wild’s Aggressive Winter Portfolio 2024-25

Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Private equity investment firm Intermediate Capital Group (LSE:ICG) was the aggressive portfolio’s best performer in November. It had a volatile month, rescued by a rally which reversed losses suffered after it published half-year results. Growth in total assets under management of 25% generated a decent increase in fee income. Shares ended November with a 2.7% gain.

Construction and regeneration business Morgan Sindall Group (LSE:MGNS) also did well, adding 1.6%. But the month was a dull one compared to October when the shares surged 25%. Profits at Morgan’s fit-out business have strengthened significantly and will “materially exceed the group's previous expectations”. It did mean Morgan’s share price started this winter at an elevated level, so further gains will be hard won.

The rest of the aggressive constituents ended November in negative territory. Copper miner Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) fell 1.7% along with much of the mining sector. Demand concerns are influencing direction. Meanwhile, hospitality real estate company PPHE Hotel Group Ltd (LSE:PPH) lost 6%. Its shares, which had rallied ahead of the winter, promptly gave back those gains early in November.

But again, because Keller appears in both portfolios this year, its 9% loss weighed heavily on the aggressive portfolio too.