Why Ted Baker is hanging on 'a shoogly peg'

Still in deep trouble, our Scottish analyst gives his verdict on this unloved retailer.

Ted Baker (LSE:TED) 

Last time we reviewed this lot was in December last year, and the results since have proven quite spectacular.

Successfully predicting a rise, while expecting a share price to fall is something fraught with danger. Somehow, Ted Baker (LSE:TED) managed to fulfil all criteria, going up, meeting targets and then heading down anyway. Slightly mad!

• Ted Baker: A contrarian trade?

Source: Trends and Targets      Past performance is not a guide to future performance

For now, the issues are fairly straightforward. We'd projected 980p as a fairly major point of interest - in a drop cycle which was yet to happen last December - and now, the share has broken below such a point, closing at 955p on 11th June 2019.

As a result, we're pretty far from convinced Ted Baker is "cheap" and worthy of any attention. Instead, it now appears ongoing weakness below 939p looks capable of continued reversal toward 789p next.

It's absolutely crucial 789p is not breached on an initial surge downward of "real" bottom, the point at which we'd hope for a bounce with some integrity, calculates at 582p.

We cannot reliably calculate any drop target below 582p which is not prefaced with a minus sign...

• Ted Baker share plunge fails to attract buyers

Now we are reassured as to which trend TED is adhering (clue: red) the share apparently needs to better 1,545p simply to regain the trend.

We've considerable doubts this shall prove possible anytime soon as it appears the market is intend on starting a brand new trend for the share.

In fact, at present it requires to exceed 1,122p just to give a slight hint the drop has been overcooked (which does happen). But for now, there's a strong argument suggesting Ted Baker is hanging on "a shoogly peg", to employ an apt Scottish term.

Should it reach 582p, we shall become very interested in what comes next.

Source: Trends and Targets      Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang, or interactive investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.