Why Barclays shareholders may need to be patient

After an uneventful three weeks since his last analysis, it's time for another update on the UK bank.

An experiment while making bread brought Barclays (LSE:BARC) share price to mind. 

Folk who’ve tasted gluten free bread will be aware it tends to lack flavour. It transpired a couple of teaspoons of turmeric along with some black pepper, had a surprise effect. 

The bread substitute, when removed from the oven, had turned a very cowardly yellow. And this reminded us immediately of Barclays share price movements over the last three weeks since we last examined it. 

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We submitted 191p as a trigger level which should promote some proper price recovery, but each time Barclays’ share price approaches our starting point, the share turns chicken and retreats in fear. Price movements have become as boring as our efforts in trying to reinvent bread and, like our bread attempts, we fear the only thing which will make Barclays rise will be a miracle.

We’re starting to suspect the price will need to be gapped above 191p to make price recovery inevitable.
Above 191p now points at the potential of growth to an initial 208p, with secondary, if exceeded, at 228p. But, importantly, should the market discover sufficient excuse to gap the share above 208p, it’s almost certainly going to create a miracle scenario, expecting a Big Picture cycle to commence to an initial 238p with secondary, if bettered, calculating at a longer term 312p.

For everything to go as badly wrong as today’s bread experiment, the share needs to drift below an unlikely 152p. For Barclays, we suspect it’s all a matter of patience.

Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance

Alistair Strang has led high-profile and 'top secret' software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know 'how it worked' with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.

Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.