Stockwatch: four defensive shares to consider amid market wreckage

When the market is having a serious fall over some macro issue, it is always interesting to see which shares hold up or even rally.

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Ominously, therefore, utilities had their best day in as long as I can remember – going back to the 2008 crisis possibly. It takes more than a sudden shock event – 11 September 2001, for example – to see the likes of National Grid (LSE:NG.), Severn Trent (LSE:SVT), SSE (LSE:SSE) and United Utilities Group Class A (LSE:UU.) rise in unison, but yesterday they all jumped around 5% amid savage falls generally.

Irony is how a utilities rally fills me with dread

I recall National Grid being a reliable “defensive” share during the early 1990s recession when 1980s’ excesses of corporate debt, overstretch and aggressive accounting saw many “growth” shares slaughtered. Otherwise, and taking the past five years as an example, it is a proxy for the volatile-sideways trend in most utilities:

Source: TradingView. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Generally, as investors, we have to hope yesterday’s surge proves no different from others on this chart, whereas a breakout to the upside would affirm a shift to bear market sentiment. So far today, however, National Grid has added another 1% to 1,065p.

Already, if utilities had just stayed firm or edged up a per cent or two yesterday, maybe fine, as if the market sensed Trump will walk back from the crazy destruction he’s unleashed. But concerted rallies of 5%-plus are as if a visceral fear has opened, amid uncertainty about where the chaos may lead economically in the medium term. It’s understandable given Trump’s tariffs exceed those introduced by the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act, which played a part in the Great Depression. Today, nations are much more interlocked on trade than nearly a century ago. 

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But let us not lose sight of the essential matter: how market downturns are friendly to long-term investors, so long as your timing is reasonably right.

In my bones, and noting this utilities rally, I would be wary of cyclicals and indeed growth shares – unless their fundamentals truly appeal – until we see whether global recession can be averted. One forecast that I have seen is for the US to enter recession within 90 days as a consequence of effectively the biggest tax rise in US history. But let us see what actually unfolds.  

‘Near-essential retail’ may offer more intrigue than utilities

A dilemma now with buying utilities – especially switching into the sector – is the potential for declines in common with zigzag charts, the moment sentiment shifts back to “risk on”. That is going to happen variously even through a bear market, hence you need to be an affirmed pessimist on the economy to raise utilities’ exposure to a meaningful 10% or more of an equities portfolio. There is a scenario where that works and, indeed, utility yields are meaningfully above 4% (albeit near fully paying out earnings which could change with tougher regulation).

As a first priority for defensive shares, I am more inclined towards the likes of FTSE 100 grocer Sainsbury (J) (LSE:SBRY), which at 242p (up 3% yesterday and a further 1% this morning) yields 6% with around 1.7x earnings cover according to forecasts. A forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of around 10x may be a slight premium to the underlying earnings trajectory and, of course, higher employment costs are manifesting. Yet the shares also currently trade around tangible net asset value, which should limit downside.

Setting aside the Covid roller coaster, the chart is at the low end of the past two years’ volatility:

Source: TradingView. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

The obvious challenge is the continued expansion by Aldi and Lidl, compromising margin as the likes of Sainsbury’s get forced into price-matching. Lidl is also poised with another round of “veg for 15p” like last Easter to attract people for their big shop. Yet these German retailers have a limited produce range that the likes of Sainsbury’s exceeds at bigger stores.

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Coincidental with some flight to “near-essential retail” shares yesterday, mid-cap Currys (LSE:CURY) was able to release a “profits expected to be above previous guidance” update with five weeks of the financial year left. It was hardly a major upgrade, it being the median point of a profit range, implying near 7% and with the company’s broker raising the earnings per share target by 5% to 10.6p.

Yet the shares rose progressively throughout the day to close up 15% at 103p – on a 2.2% yield and circa 10x PE. In fairness, operating margins are only very slightly shy of Sainsbury’s, although electrical items have a somewhat more “discretionary” aspect of spending than groceries. There is a near-essential aspect to Currys’ sales range, although it’s in a highly competitive market.

The share’s re-rating is significantly explained by a turnaround in Currys’ Nordic region, although investors also possibly warmed to this being a second upgrade in 2025.  

I rated Currys a “buy” at 57p in May 2023, similarly due to a positive update that implied its roller-coaster chart had fallen too far. The PE looked below 7x and yield over 5%. A private equity approach in February 2024 saw the shares finally start to rerate after a boom/bust pattern during Covid:

Source: TradingView. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

My concern is how resilient Currys proves to be should US tariffs conflate with higher UK employment costs – and probably taxes later this year – for a recession. Grocery shares would then be more genuinely defensive.

So, Currys is a tricky call on this rally. News flow and the chart imply a momentum share, but the macro context can easily compromise that. Someone looking to nail a capital gain by 5 April might be justified with “sell”, but that looks harsh. I therefore compromise with “hold” while noting a variety of outcomes.

Mid-cap B&M European Value Retail SA (LSE:BME) is intriguing after a long fall from around 600p in late 2023 to 260p this March, then a rise of 9% to 283p in the first three days of April. There being no fresh news, the turnaround looks a blend of attempted bottom-fishing with a sense of how, in the current climate, “value” retail of grocery and mostly essential items should be defensive.

Source: TradingView. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

I am also alert, however, despite its debts, that B&M is potentially a target for private equity ownership given a strongly cash-generative model. This was significantly why I drew attention to the shares at 279p last February, albeit concluding “hold” rather than “buy” given that the CEO had resigned and a newcomer might reset the business – possibly cutting dividends, where there has been a history of special payouts – to reduce debt. The September 2024 balance sheet also had negative net tangible assets.

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Its culture of recent updates is quite opposite to Currys, however, serially guiding profits down although by less than last February. Ostensibly, the yield is over 7% and PE around 8x, although this flags questions about whether B&M’s aggressive expansion in the UK and France can continue. Its chair did buy £201,000 worth of shares at 287p last February though.

The shares are thus in a “greed/fear conundrum” - they appear cheap but risks need clarifying. An update in respect of the year to 29 March is due on 15 April.

It is tempting to pull the trigger for “buy” here, given a risk that the shares continue to edge up, especially if a respected new CEO is confirmed and the update ceases to involve negatives.

In early dealings today, the shares added 1% to 286.5p versus the FTSE 250 index 0.5% easier - tacit evidence that B&M is with those defensive shares attracting buyers overall in this downturn. An averaging-in stance could work well, although strictly I should await more evidence on fundamentals, so therefore rate the shares a “hold”. You decide your risk appetite.

Edmond Jackson is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of interactive investor.