Still optimistic about NatWest shares
Up almost 150% since autumn 2023, there could be further upside for shares in the high street lender, writes independent analyst Alistair Strang.
17th March 2025 07:49
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
After its post-financial crisis name change and share consolidation, there’s now some remarkable potentials forming for the future at NatWest Group (LSE:NWG).
The only immediate fly in the ointment has been one of our least favourite share price shuffles, NatWest being gapped up in February and gapped down in March. Typically, this share price dance introduces the potential for some reliable reversals, a market inspired push toward a level from which we tend to expect a rebound.
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In the case of NatWest, this situation allows weakness below 428p to trigger reversal to an initial 400p along with a reasonable chance of a rebound, due to the Red uptrend line. Should 400p break, our anticipated rebound level moves down to 368p.
Visually, this should not be a big deal as it neatly matches the low of the start of 2025, again giving a good reason for a bounce. And, more importantly, it keeps the share price within Big Picture parameters which is quite important.
The situation with NatWest is now useful, calculating with the potential of movement next above 462p moving the share price into a region where shuffles upward to an initial 558p becomes possible with our longer-term secondary, if bettered, at an astounding 693p, matching the ‘adjusted’ market high of 2007.
Our “only” major problem comes from that “GaGa” shuffle, giving a suspicion the market may not wish the share price to flourish above our historical target level at 466p. We’d warned this may cause issues as it would signal the share making the transit from “current market” to “big picture” potentials. It’s not witchcraft, just a fairly typical excuse the market uses to foul up price dance steps.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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