ii view: rising costs overshadow Domino’s franchise plan
Looking to add more than 600 new stores by 2033 and with over 9 million existing users of its digital app. Buy, sell, or hold?
9th December 2024 11:24
by Keith Bowman from interactive investor
New five-year framework with franchise partners
- Group investment of £3-4 million per year from 2025
- Recent total orders up 5.3%, compared to a gain of 3.5% in Q3
- Recent like-for-like orders up 2.7%, compared to a gain of 0.7% in Q3
Guidance:
- Now expects additional annual staff costs of around £3 million
Chief executive Andrew Rennie said:
"I'm delighted to have reached a longer-term framework with our world-class franchise partners. This new framework is a vital step in driving the future growth of both DPG and our franchise partners. We've shown since 2021 that when we are aligned with our franchisees, we can achieve so much together, and this framework will take our partnership to the next level.”
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ii round-up:
Domino's Pizza Group (LSE:DOM) today announced a new five-year framework with its franchise partners as well as an update on recent trading.
Domino’s will look to invest between £3 million and £4 million a year into its franchise partners from 2025, underpinning confidence in hitting £2 billion of systems sales from 1,600 stores by 2028, rising to £2.5 billion from 2,000 stores by 2033. That’s up from £1.57 billion and 1,300 stores in 2023.
Total orders for the first nine weeks of the fourth quarter rose 5.3% compared to a gain of 3.5% in Q3. Following tax changes in the UK Budget, Domino’s now expects additional labour costs of around £3 million per annum.
Shares in the FTSE 250 company fell 3% in UK trading having come into this latest news down around 6% year-to-date. That’s similar to pub and restaurant operator Mitchells & Butlers (LSE:MAB). The FTSE 250 index itself is up 7% in 2024.
UK listed Domino’s operates the master UK and Irish franchise for its US stock market listed parent company.
The UK group’s new five-year framework with its franchise operators includes an enhanced marketing contribution, increased investment in the digital app, plus new store incentives for franchisees.
Full-year results to 31 December are likely to be announced mid-March.
ii view:
The FTSE 250 company opened its first UK store in Luton in 1985. Today it delivers over 106 million pizzas a year. Total UK and Irish stores totalled 1,362 as of 6 December, up from 1,314 back at the start of the year with systems orders or sales including both franchisees and its own owned stores. As well as its own delivery staff, both Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (LSE:JET) and Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER) are also used to make deliveries.
For investors, tax changes made in the UK Budget in October will now see labour costs rise by around £3 million a year. High borrowing costs continue to leave consumer spending pressured. Group net debt of £285 million as of late June was up from £233 million at the end of 2023, while competitors such as McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD) are not standing still, with a focus on new drive-thru outlets.
To the upside, a new five-year framework with franchises follows a previous period of regular disagreements between the two. Increased investment into its existing 9.5 million app users is being made. Delivery via both Uber Eats and Just Eat is now available, while a focus on shareholder returns includes both share buybacks and a forecast dividend yield of around 3.2%.
Domino's Pizza shares have recovered well from a sell-off in August which followed its downgrade to its full-year profit forecast, blamed on cost of living pressures. And, despite ongoing risks, a consensus analyst fair value estimate near 400p implies confidence of further upside in the City.
Positives:
- Ongoing new store openings
- Over £460 million of shareholder returns made since March 2021
Negatives:
- Tough consumer backdrop
- Intense competition
The average rating of stock market analysts:
Buy
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