Have Glencore shares fallen far enough?
Shares in this miner haven't been so cheap since summer 2021 following a 10% fall in the past week. Independent analyst Alistair Strang studies his charts for signs of a rebound.
25th February 2025 07:35
by Alistair Strang from Trends and Targets
While it is relatively straightforward picking trigger levels on a share price which is heading up, proposing a trigger ( bounce) level is fraught with danger. A very real truism in the marketplace is the warning “Never Catch A Falling Knife”.
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Our issue is quite simple, Glencore (LSE:GLEN)'s share price is falling and we’re about to propose a level by which we’d hope for a rebound. About the only nice thing with this strategy is the ability to propose a fairly tight stop level, this being a point where our upward calculations fall apart.
To clarify, we suspect Glencore's share price intends a bounce from around 304p, a price level it’s extremely close to. According to our calculations, price closure below 304p will be troubling as it would effectively destroy all arguments favouring a sharp upward movement.
In summary, the visuals give considerable hope for a movement which should hopefully exceed 375p, essentially destroying the gloom generated by the current surge below the Red line on the chart. Movements such as this should prove capable of generating a nod in the direction of 406p with our longer-term secondary, if bettered, at a future 473p.
Our problem comes if the price closes below 304p, essentially giving the share price the opportunity to slide to a ridiculous looking 211p. But on the brighter side, if our rebound hypothesis comes to fruition, we’re able to calculate a distant future 558p as providing an attraction, allowing the price to match its high from 2023.
This should be worth watching in the days ahead.
Source: Trends and Targets. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Alistair Strang has led high-profile and "top secret" software projects since the late 1970s and won the original John Logie Baird Award for inventors and innovators. After the financial crash, he wanted to know "how it worked" with a view to mimicking existing trading formulas and predicting what was coming next. His results speak for themselves as he continually refines the methodology.
Alistair Strang is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of Interactive Investor. All correspondence is with Alistair Strang, who for these purposes is deemed a third-party supplier. Buying, selling and investing in shares is not without risk. Market and company movement will affect your performance and you may get back less than you invest. Neither Alistair Strang or Interactive Investor will be responsible for any losses that may be incurred as a result of following a trading idea.
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