Frasers swimming against the tide amid FTSE 100 relegation

Hot on the heels of relegation from the FTSE 100 being confirmed, Frasers Group (LSE:FRAS) has declared a profit downgrade which has compounded its current woes.

Nearer term, the current clouds overhanging over the retail sector (which have also resulted in the relegation of peer B&M European Value Retail SA (LSE:BME) from the premier index) are weighing on performance. Consumer sentiment is patchy at best, retail sales are under pressure and the general economic backdrop has lessened consumer propensity to spend.

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Meanwhile, a failed bid for Mulberry Group (LSE:MUL) and public disagreements with Boohoo Group (LSE:BOO) have been unwelcome distractions, and the group has found itself under increasing pressure as investors seek better value elsewhere in the sector.

As a result, Frasers has downgraded its outlook for full-year adjusted pre-tax profit to be in a range of £550 to £600 million, from its previous guidance of £575 to £625 million, a move which will inevitably grab the headlines and indeed investor attention. Apart from weak consumer sentiment, the measures announced in the Budget are likely to result in incremental costs of £50 million to the business, which adds another layer of difficulty.

Unfortunately there is no escaping the impact of consumer reluctance in what is the core part of its business. Adjusted pre-tax profit for the half fell by 1.5% to £299.2 million, while at an operating profit level the decline was more severe, with a 10.5% drop to £266.8 million.

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Yet on the face of it, there should be reasons for optimism as the group has highlighted. Frasers is geographically diverse and announced new partnerships in Australia and Africa in the period. This is in addition to investments in and partnerships with global names such as Nike Inc Class B (NYSE:NKE), adidas AG (XETRA:ADS) and Hugo Boss AG (XETRA:BOSS), and with Prade Beauty added to the fold over the last six months. Cost savings and synergies of £74.7 million have been achieved as a result of previous warehousing automation (where gross inventory has seen an impressive reduction of 16.5% to £299 million) and by the streamlining of previous acquisitions.

Sports Direct in the UK continues to do much of the heavy lifting, and saw a trading profit increase of 3.4% to £255.2 million, while its Premium Lifestyle range saw a jump of 41.5% to £56.3 million, albeit from a lower starting point. The group’s “Elevation Strategy”, which aims to enhance its appeal through more digitally integrated and flattering displays of its products is also gaining traction, especially given some of its tie-ups with those household names.

In terms of the business more generally, there are also plans to diversify income streams further, such as its Frasers Plus credit operation. The group has outlined an ambitious goal of £1 billion in sales, £600 million in credit balances, a yield in excess of 15% and over two million customers in the longer term and, while the operation is in its early stages and represents less than 2% of group revenues, the initial numbers have spiked to 377,000 active customers.

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There has been something of a perfect storm affecting the overall picture, and the previously weak trading updates from the likes of Nike, which weighed on the Frasers share price given the connection was compounded by a 42% decline in the Hugo Boss share price as the luxury sector continues to reel from its own issues.

Frasers has been peddling frantically as it attempts to influence factors under its control, and its continuing move on the acquisition trail is one which it regards as being at a time of relatively low valuations providing investment opportunities. The broader debate around consumers switching to online and away from traditional physical stores continues and remains to be solved.

Even though the ravages of the pandemic are now firmly in the rear-view mirror, the effect on consumer attitudes has yet to play out fully. In the meantime, Frasers finds itself swimming against the tide and even prior to the precipitous drop accompanying these numbers in early trade, the shares had declined by 19% over the last year, as compared to a gain of 11.3% for the wider FTSE 100, of which it will no longer be a part. This momentum could unfortunately lead to downgrades, which could put some pressure on a market consensus which currently stands at no more than a hold.