eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 7 April 2025

Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ

• Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 6 April 2025.

Sainsbury’s

Last month, Asda kicked off a price war among supermarkets, as the UK’s largest grocery stores are scrambling to win customers back.

On eyeQ, Sainsbury (J) (LSE:SBRY)’s is in regime for the first time in a year which means macro is now an important factor in the model. The stock now sits 6.45% rich to aggregate macro conditions and model value slumped by over 16% in the last month.

Investors now need to keep a close eye on growth, credit conditions and overall consumer sentiment. With that being said, the smart machine is just shy of firing a bearish signal, so stay put as an opportunity could foster very soon.

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 6 April 2025.

Occidental Petroleum

Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY) is one of Warren Buffett’s favourite stocks. He started buying six years ago, and the most recent reports suggest Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (NYSE:BRK.B) owns around 28% of the free float in OXY.

The energy firm has had a tough run, like most oil stocks it has been hit hard of late by OPEC supply increases plus rising recession fears courtesy of Trump’s trade war.

On eyeQ, OXY is in a macro regime (67% macro relevance) and sits over 9% below our model value. That’s not quite enough to trigger a bullish signal but it’s close. Ideally, we’d see model value turn up as well. Being cheap is only half the battle; we need to see macro conditions improving too.

Still, we’re getting close to interesting levels on a stock that Buffett likes. That’s worth keeping an eye on.