eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 21 April 2025

Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ

• Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 20 April.

Page Group

PageGroup (LSE:PAGE)’s latest earnings report spoke to a weakening job market across Europe and, as a result, the recruitment company is planning additional job cuts amid declining profits.

On eyeQ, macro conditions have been deteriorating, with model value posting an 8.16% fall in the last month alone. The consolation is that the share price has sold off even harder, leaving the stock 15.36% below eyeQ model value.

Ideally, we’d see model value start to trend higher to add extra conviction, but that fair value gap is sufficient to fire a bullish signal.

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 20 April.

Adidas

eyeQ’s macro relevance has surged in the last two weeks, which means the adidas AG (XETRA:ADS) share price is now in a new macro regime. Investors need to pay attention to big picture drivers, especially risk appetite and the health of the credit market.

Model fair value is staging a comeback after the recent sell-off; eyeQ model value is up 18% in the last two weeks. The share price is lagging that move and now sits 5.46% cheap to overall macro conditions. That’s not quite enough of a valuation gap to trigger a signal but it’s definitely one to watch.