Bond Watch: why UK interest rates could hit 6.5%

Sam Benstead breaks down the latest news affecting bond investors.

Welcome to interactive investor’s ‘Bond Watch’ series, covering the latest market and economic news – as well as analysis – that is relevant to bond investors.

Our goal is to make the notoriously complicated world of bond investing simpler, by analysing the week’s most important news and distilling it into a short, useful and accessible article for DIY investors.

• Invest with ii: Investing in Bonds | Free Regular Investing | Open a SIPP

Here’s what you need to know this week.

More pain to come for UK households

Bloomberg reported that the bond market is now pricing in UK interest rates to peak at 6.5% by March, as the Bank of England struggles to take control of inflation.

Inflation for May came in at 8.7%, unchanged from April, with core inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rising from 6.8% to 7.1%.

Schroders, the fund manager, reckons the Bank of England will raise rates by 50 basis points in August and September, before slowing to 25 point increments in November and December. It now anticipates 6.5% rates by the end of 2023.

Azad Zangana, a senior economist at Schroders, says the Bank of England is no longer able to wait and see how the interest rate rises so far will affect the economy.

• Everything you need to know about investing in gilts
• Fixed income trades surge 879%
• Investors dump UK funds and buy bonds

“We know that interest rates work with long and variable lags, and it is not exactly clear yet what the effect of the 13 consecutive rate rises seen so far will be.

“With its forecasting abilities under question, however, the Bank of England’s likely approach now comes with a risk of ‘policy error’ where it raises interest rates too high.

“Perhaps more than any other developed economy central bank, the Bank of England is set on a course of prioritising inflation over growth. And it’s becoming increasingly clear that the trade-off for taming inflation will likely be a recession.”

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says the UK is now the only G7 country that is still dealing with rising inflation, with its figures showing prices rose 7.9% in May, up from 7.8% in April.

Debt issued at highest average yield since 2007

It’s not just households that are feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, but the UK government too.

It issued bonds (gilts) at their highest average yield since 2007 this week. It committed to paying investors 5.7% to borrow for just over two years and in total it raised £4 billion.

A bond issued at the start of the year, also maturing in October 2025, cost the government 3.6% a year, showing how borrowing costs have risen sharply this year.

• Why bonds are back and how you can invest in them
• Don’t be shy, ask ii….why is this inflation-linked bond fund losing money?
• Bond Watch: will the latest interest rate hike finally cool inflation?
• Day in the life of a bond fund manager: M&G’s Eva Sun-Wai

The Bank of England has raised interest rates 13 times in a row since towards the end of 2021, taking them from 0.1% to 5% today.

The UK government is planning to sell £241 billion of bonds for the 2023-24 fiscal year, the highest annual bill ever apart from the £486 billion sold during the 2020 to 2021 pandemic period.